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Forex technical analysis tries to predict price movements of currency by examining the market variables and mathematical data. This includes market participants (on the national and corporate levels), price histories, fluctuations and other trends. The forex technical analysis makes the assumption that economic trends are not randomized. Therefore, the mathematical formulas used to develop a technical analysis make the assumption that a price will move in any of three linear directions: up, down or sideways.
When a technical analysis shows that a price is trending upwards, there is an increase in the currency value and then an increase in the amount of buyers. When a price trends downwards there is the opposite impact: currency value decreases and there are more sellers. A sideways trend shows that there is little movement in the value—but that does not mean that there are no buyers or sellers of a particular currency. This is because, much like the stock market, trader perceptions create buy/sell patterns. Therefore, it is important to examine the current currency market trends, as well as the trader mentalities.
A forex technical analysis uses charting tools to graphically depict trends based on current and historical information. The technical analysis may involve, but is not dependent on, fundamental analysis characteristics, such as governance and employment of the currency's originating nation. The main benefit of technical analysis is that it is similar to your traditional stock market analysis---it shows value patterns, trends, rises, falls, and so on. In fact, many of the charting tools used in a technical analysis, such as the candles stick, is mimicry of tools used in the stock market. So while currency trading is a relatively new market for your average trader, the mathematics and chart processes are familiar.
|Jennifer Mathes, Ph.D.|